At the beginning of the 2013/14 season, the unusual situation of the top three teams in England starting the season with a new manager. Not that it is unusual to see Man City and Chelsea change their manager, but Man Utd for the first time since the 1986/87 season and the first time ever in the Premier League would start with a manager that wasn’t called Sir Alex Ferguson.
There was always going to be growing pains for each manager, but most people wouldn’t have thought the growing pains would be quite as severe as they actually have been, with each manager struggling in his new role (or old role if your Mourinho). This begs the question, which manager has started the season the worse?
The way of calculating how well each manager has done is fairly simple; the question will be asked what were the minimum expectations of points from each game that they have managed compared to the points they actually achieved. So in alphabetical order here we go.
Chelsea currently sit on 11 points and are therefore 1 and 4 points clear of City and Utd respectively. However what is the minimum points they actually be on?
Chelsea started the season with home wins against Hull and Villa, then followed it up with a draw away to Man Utd. They then lost away to Everton, before beating Fulham at home and drawing at Spurs. Through those six games they achieved 11 points, and the only dropped points that would have been considered poor was not drawing away to Everton. So it is fair to say that Mourinho has only not gained 1 point that he shouldn’t have. Essentially Chelsea should be on a minimum of 12 points.
If you look at the cup competitions (Super Cup excluded), Chelsea lost to Basel at home and beat Swindon away. Obviously the Basel result was a shocker and is an obvious 3 points that Chelsea and Mourinho should have picked up.
Utd currently sit on a very disappointing 7 points and are therefore 3 and 4 points behind City and Chelsea respectively. However what are the minimum points should they be on?
Utd started the season with a win away to Swansea, and a draw at home to Chelsea. This was followed up by a loss at Liverpool, a win at home to Palace and an embarrassing loss away to Man City. However the most embarrassing result for Utd so far was the loss at home to West Brom. So in those six games Utd have only been able to achieve 7 points. It would be fair to say that Utd gained 2 points away to Swansea, however dropped 1 point away to Liverpool and City as well as 3 points at home to West Brom. Therefore Moyes has dropped 3 points more than Utd’s minimum expectations. Essentially Utd should be on a minimum of 10 points.
Utd have however won both of their cup games (Charity Shield excluded) with wins at home to Liverpool and Bayer Leverkusen, so there are no poor results there.
City currently sit on 10 points and are therefore 3 ahead of Utd and 1 behind Chelsea. However what are the minimum points they should be on?
City started the season with a win at home to Newcastle, before being beaten away to Cardiff. This was followed by a win at home to Hull, a draw away to Stoke and a convincing win against arch rivals Man Utd. However City then lost once again away to Aston Villa, one of the worst home teams in the league. So in those six games City have managed to achieve 10 points. It would be fair to say that City gained 2 points above minimum expectation by beating Utd, however they would have expected to win against Stoke, Villa and Cardiff, yet only managed to achieve 1 point. Therefore Pellegrini has dropped 6 points more than City’s minimum expectations. Essentially City should be on a minimum of 16 points.
City have won both of their cup games with wins over Plzen away and Wigan at home, so there are no bad results there.
Overall Mourinho has had the best league start of the three managers with only 1 point below minimum expectation, that is in comparison to Moyes who is 3 points below minimum expectation and Pellegrini who is 6 points below minimum expectation.
If you take it as an overall points dropped then Moyes would come out on top (with 3 compared to Mourinho’s 4), however despite Mourinho having an embarrassing result against Basel, it isn’t as big a deal because of how easy Chelsea’s Champions’ League group is, and they can still afford to drop those points and qualify easily. Therefore they can’t be categorised on the same level as Utd losing to West Brom or City losing to Cardiff.
Moyes’ start to the season has been very poor in the league (worst Utd start in Premier League), however as has been shown by the fact that Utd are only 3 points below what would be considered their minimum expectation, Utd have had by far the hardest schedule of the top three clubs, although it still is a very poor start.
Pellegrini’s start is however by far the worst of the three. Despite an excellent result against City’s least favourite team, where they totally outplayed their opponents, City have had three very poor away results (still haven’t won an away game this season) and with a very easy fixture list to start the season, being on 10 points isn’t acceptable for Pellegrini and City.
Therefore Pellegrini has had by far the worst start to the season of the three new managers, however all three will have to shape up pretty quickly if they have desires of winning the Premier League in their first season of their new job.
So what did you think of the outcome of the minimum expectation point totaliser? Were you surprised with who came out on top, or who came out on bottom? Let me know and leave a comment. Also feel free to follow BM23reviews on twitter or like BM23reviews on Facebook, they are both at the top right of the page. Thanks for reading.